Future of Microsoft?

[fingal]

Based on the theory that you can recycle geeky conversations in this thread, I was chatting to someone about New Street Station where I catch the train on most days. Their entire train information system seems to run on Windows 2000.

We (not the 'Royal we' btw) know this because it goes down sometimes, showing its knickers to the world. In other words, the screen goes blue and you can see typical MS error messages instead of, let's say, details of the 13:05 to Nuneaton.

One day it crashed and put all the train times back by one hour. Very confusing for a lot of people. Anyhow, someone told me that Vista deliberately incorporates a Red Screen of Death. That's right! Turn your bugs into features and rebrand them. Why didn't we think of that? Is this true?!

[bigtomrodney]

Yeah that's true. Red Screen of Death. Makes me laugh. I think it's because people know it so well and it's such a joke that they needed something new. I did hear though that the blue screen will be there for less serious errors, and red screen will be for armageddon type errors. But no to be a cynic or anything aren't all General Protection Faults a bad thing? Fair enough they are there to protect your hardware but isn't it a really bad thing that you are in that situation at all?

Worse still that they are regular/likely enough to have categories for them.

[bryansmith]

Red screens? Wow, that should be quite the sight. Are they planning on a green screen? Maybe it could blend in with Christmas decorations (I can see it now - have your computers lined up, one with a RSOD, another with a GSOD).

Okay, I let my imagination run a little wild there.

Like you said bigtomrodney, if your computer goes down, to the average user do they care why?

Bryan

[Wifi_is_evil]

Speculation is great, but lets look at the facts:

To start with, iPOD won't make a difference to idiots. Computer illiterates buy ipods and don't even know about the new intel macs. They just think "oh, when I was in grade 5 I put up with those crappy emacs that schools paid $800AU for.. My computer is WAY better than that." (Not considering they spent three times as much on theirs).

Now, with that taken into account, what hope does mac have and what worked for them in the past?

-Geeks looked into them when they realised how much their ipods owned and kept getting annoying ads about the latest itunes for Macs. The geeks want them. In fact most of my friends who are computer illiterate say that macs are the best and that they are seriously looking into investing in them.

- The only reason mac is still in the game is because they bulk sold terrible and terribly cheap computers to primary schools (in Australia, anyway). With the worst (latest) macs these days, they STILL aren't terrible so convincing schools to buy them again may cause younger users to develop interest in them.

Apples market share growth with desktops? I think it has jumped from 4% to 7% in the last two years. Something like that. Now, that may not SEEM like much, but think of it this way: IT ALMOST DOUBLED.

Now, it has no hope for a server market.. People might as well get BSD. They might, but I think Linux is just too popular now so BSD will be in Linux's place now when (if) Linux takes over the server market. (That is, frontline alternative, but otherwise a geek toy.)

About Microsoft Zune? I don't know anyone who has any brains and wants it... (No offense to those who do, but seriously, if you and those other 2 people REALLY do, reconsider.)

I think Windows won't lose TOO much market share in the next few years, but they are definately losing. Apple is growing rapidly, and Linux is growing at a constant (being faster than Windows).

Not many of my friends want Linux, but I've had a few ask about it. And if you think of ALL of the linux users already x 3, that is a lot of people who are considering getting linux!


So the conclusion: Microsoft is too rich to lose for now, no matter how much they are losing. They can always afford to stay in the game. However, my computer repairman told me Microsoft has plans to switch to the entertainment industry and that their prime focus will be Xbox and media centre pc's.

This probably means Vista Media Edition may be the last Windows we see. From this we can speculate it will begin to outdate in 5 years or so? Of course, what Windows hopes if everyone will either be happy with an Xbox (computer illiterates) and for the geeks there will be updates to Windows. Although, eventually, because Windows isn't opensource, Linux and Mac will then take over the ENTIRE market of geeks/workmen, leaving only Xbox.

Now I don't know about you guys, but I happen to HATE Sony. Big warranty voids, explosive batteries, playstation 2's with a life expectancy of 1 hour to 2 years MAX, more warranty voids...

NOW they are selling this PS3 that is so powerful that it is a waste. I mean come on, the gamers aren't Pixar developers trying to render 10 images at once. Why such high level graphics and powerful machines? The games aren't even fun.

So, eventually Sony will die. I mean, trying to entice geeks with "it has puppy linux" is just sad. Anyone can put free software on their hardware. It'll be a while, yes, as Sony is rich also. But, if anything, they are just promoting Linux.

That leaves Nintendo to kill off what may be left of Microsoft (their Xbox division). Come on, everyone knows Nintendo is superior. Always has been, always will be.

Those are the facts, so they are about as good as I can speculate. Still, I think that is what will happen. Microsoft WILL die, but it will be a LOOOOOOOOOONNNG time.

[Zoneseek]

Speculation is great, but lets look at the facts:

To start with, iPOD won't make a difference to idiots. Computer illiterates buy ipods and don't even know about the new intel macs. They just think "oh, when I was in grade 5 I put up with those crappy emacs that schools paid $800AU for.. My computer is WAY better than that." (Not considering they spent three times as much on theirs).

Now, with that taken into account, what hope does mac have and what worked for them in the past?

-Geeks looked into them when they realised how much their ipods owned and kept getting annoying ads about the latest itunes for Macs. The geeks want them. In fact most of my friends who are computer illiterate say that macs are the best and that they are seriously looking into investing in them.

- The only reason mac is still in the game is because they bulk sold terrible and terribly cheap computers to primary schools (in Australia, anyway). With the worst (latest) macs these days, they STILL aren't terrible so convincing schools to buy them again may cause younger users to develop interest in them.

Apples market share growth with desktops? I think it has jumped from 4% to 7% in the last two years. Something like that. Now, that may not SEEM like much, but think of it this way: IT ALMOST DOUBLED.

Now, it has no hope for a server market.. People might as well get BSD. They might, but I think Linux is just too popular now so BSD will be in Linux's place now when (if) Linux takes over the server market. (That is, frontline alternative, but otherwise a geek toy.)

About Microsoft Zune? I don't know anyone who has any brains and wants it... (No offense to those who do, but seriously, if you and those other 2 people REALLY do, reconsider.)

I think Windows won't lose TOO much market share in the next few years, but they are definately losing. Apple is growing rapidly, and Linux is growing at a constant (being faster than Windows).

Not many of my friends want Linux, but I've had a few ask about it. And if you think of ALL of the linux users already x 3, that is a lot of people who are considering getting linux!


So the conclusion: Microsoft is too rich to lose for now, no matter how much they are losing. They can always afford to stay in the game. However, my computer repairman told me Microsoft has plans to switch to the entertainment industry and that their prime focus will be Xbox and media centre pc's.

This probably means Vista Media Edition may be the last Windows we see. From this we can speculate it will begin to outdate in 5 years or so? Of course, what Windows hopes if everyone will either be happy with an Xbox (computer illiterates) and for the geeks there will be updates to Windows. Although, eventually, because Windows isn't opensource, Linux and Mac will then take over the ENTIRE market of geeks/workmen, leaving only Xbox.

Now I don't know about you guys, but I happen to HATE Sony. Big warranty voids, explosive batteries, playstation 2's with a life expectancy of 1 hour to 2 years MAX, more warranty voids...

NOW they are selling this PS3 that is so powerful that it is a waste. I mean come on, the gamers aren't Pixar developers trying to render 10 images at once. Why such high level graphics and powerful machines? The games aren't even fun.

So, eventually Sony will die. I mean, trying to entice geeks with "it has puppy linux" is just sad. Anyone can put free software on their hardware. It'll be a while, yes, as Sony is rich also. But, if anything, they are just promoting Linux.

That leaves Nintendo to kill off what may be left of Microsoft (their Xbox division). Come on, everyone knows Nintendo is superior. Always has been, always will be.

Those are the facts, so they are about as good as I can speculate. Still, I think that is what will happen. Microsoft WILL die, but it will be a LOOOOOOOOOONNNG time.

A long time? If MS loses it's OS industry, it will die. That will just be it. The monopoly it holds on that market is the very definition of it, no matter how much anyone tries to spin it. The vast majority of their ventures have been utter failures, and their products inferior. Of course with the exception of Windows. So if like you say, Vista is their last OS, that won't be a long time at all. There is no chance in hell Xbox is going to stand up for long against other game consoles. In the U.S., it's success was lukewarm. Worldwide it's been less than a failure. Microsoft hasn't made a red cent out of this thing, they have only lost money. Of course they can absorb it in the attempt to get their grip on the market, but like I said, without the Windows empire, Microsoft is just another mediocre company selling mediocre products.

With that said, it will be a cold day in hell before Windows dies. It might receive some brutal criticism, but it will still be used for the long haul. The software industry is already built around it. Any change from this would truly be epic. That's not to say it can't happen, but only time will tell.

[Wifi_is_evil]

I sort of agree- I mean my conclusion was only an educated guess, but many of my points were fact.

I don't know about over there, but in Australia Xbox SMASHED Gamecube in popularity and sales. It isn't that gamecube wasn't a great console- it was because it seems Nintendo forgot to market it! It was NEVER advertised and that is reflected in its sucess.

Sure Xbox only trailed PS2 in popularity, but many of my friends have them.

I also think Microsoft will be making a smart move to focus on entertainment. I mean, where it is at NOW that won't be a good idea, but computers seem to be becoming just a means for entertainment these days. A lot of people sit their computers in their lounge rooms hooked up to their TVs with Windows XP Media Centre Edition.

Hopefully people will soon be smart enough to realise how much better and cheaper it is to buy a set top box + a cheap dvd player + a media recorder like those TeVo's or whatever they are in america + a nintendo wii than it is to buy a powerful computer and Windows.