Linux and the low global Desktop marketshare...

[sstomek]

It seemed to me there was a big upswell of linux usage after Firefox took off. There was a greater awareness of FOSS and its perceived quality no to mention cost to the end user. I remember a time when people said we shouldn't port Linux apps to Windows. But this brings awareness and when people arrive at linux it already seems familiar because 90% of modern home computer usage is surfing the net.

Amarok is due to get a Windows port alongside its 2.0 release (KDE4 release). If you read any of the big geek sites like slashdot or digg you'll see how popular Amarok is. It reminds me of the enthusiasm for Firefox in its early days. If we see a Windows port of that too and possibly the growth of other apps like gaim and open office we will really have the whole nest set up for migrating users. This combined with the smaller issues like nVidia/ATI driver licences and broader wifi chip support I think we will really see an upsurge in OEM boxes providing linux.

Look at the Philips iQon series. You can buy them in Tesco. And pretty much every model comes as an Intel or an AMD, with the AMD costing much less. There is the consumer choice - and there is where the consumer gets the benefit of reduced cost and (arguably) better technology.

Definitely some good points. Firefox is definitely a good example. I read in an article that they achieved between 10-18% of the market share. Enough to make most web developers make sure their web site run well in Firefox. Still I think its safe to say that it's the power users that use Firefox. I know when I would fix computers I would send them back with Firefox installed and as their default browser. Not sure if they even notice heh.

I think it's that 3rd party support thats a minor problem. I think it would be pretty difficult for Linux to reach the amount of 3rd party support that Microsoft has reached. We are definitely getting closer though with these new versions coming out.

I think as of now the OEM companies are afraid to change the OS that comes with the box, because if they try it, they may lose a good customer base of people who love Windows or are used to it. Right now i don't think the OEM companies are interested in changing since Windows does own the market share and it wouldn't be a smart decision on their part to go from an OS that most people use to trying something new that people might be afraid to try.

I think that the OEM's won't be provide the new OS's till there is a shift in the market share of OS's. To them it's don't fix what isn't broken (damn, so paradoxical). But hey they are making the money and that's what counts.

-Tomek

[bigtomrodney]

Power computer users definitely can become aware of the multiple operating systems and eventually find out/switch to Linux. However, your average computer user/consumer is not a power computer user by any means (however, i believe that number is growing).

To be honest I find the opposite true. Power Users are generally the most set in their ways. They are the ones who know the keyboard shortcuts and store them in muscle memory. They have their applications, they use the command line etc. They know what they know. It is the really advanced users who have the foresite to step above the wizards they are used to and the registry hacks they learned.

And it is the computer novice who doesn't really care and will use what is to hand. My own mother is as proficient in Linux as she is in Windows. She doesn't have a Linux install, but you better believe she has a stockpile of livecds. She loves all of the linux games available to her like Kbattleship, Enigma etc. She is completely operating system neutral. She will use what gets the job done. And that is what I think is most important.

[Juan Pablo]

I really don't mind how many people is using Linux, or OSS. I don't even care if the developers and me are the only using Linux. I use Linux because it works for me better than Windows.

A common error with noobs is that they think we all are begging to get new users. Like the user who said "this is a golden oportunity for you"

[carlosponti]

A common error with noobs is that they think we all are begging to get new users.

i kinda disagree. i wish for more users but not to completely blow MS out of the market just enough to make them earn thier living. it will help linux out as well. I am also ever so happy to help someone convert to linux. but i do start off by explaining that windows is not linux and vice versa.

[smolloy]

I am very happy to help new users (I still consider myself to be new), and I would welcome an increased user base, but I still don't have a problem with the situation as it is right now. I am able to use a very stable operating system, with a choice of great software that is being continually improved upon.

I do, however, agree with carlosponti's point that it would be nice to force Microsoft to work harder to produce better software. This can only be good for the users of linux OR windows.

[aysiu]

I would have to go with Juan Pablo on the lack of preinstallation.

More details here:
http://www.psychocats.net/essays/linuxdesktopmyth (warning--it's long)

[Juan Pablo]

I already read that article and it is great, good job!

[cousinlucky]

The very proficient " Window's "guy who brought Suse/Novell to my attention as he put it into a computer to test it is now using and liking Kubuntu.

As an outsider my perspective is a little different. It seems to me that the human beings wise enough to build their own computers or design their own software will be using a Linux distro, or many distros.

Windows is a fine operating system; until it is used on the Internet, where it is a total disaster. ( my experience ) I know many, many people who gave up using the Internet entirely because of their frustration with Windows security. They do not want to go through the changes or learning required for Linux even though they do not have any idea how easy it is to use.

I think the Human Fear of anything unknown just keeps people away from Linux.

[gruven]

Very good points in this thread, but here is something else.

Linux won't become widespread until hardware manufacturers write drivers for Linux for their hardware. Of course I am aware that linux supports a lot of hardware, and some very obscure hardware, but until there are drivers for pretty much everything, Linux is still behind in the times.

I really wish that hardware vendors would start writing drivers for Linux, but I really don't see that happening anytime soon because of the money Microsoft is able to throw around. Open source drivers are mostly good, but it takes a lot of time to backwards engineer something to be able to write a stable driver for it.

I think this is the biggest obsticle in the road. OEM's can't really offer support for Linux until the hardware manufacturers provide drivers and documentation for their drivers. Even if OEM's were to install Linux by default, they still would not offer support for it on the desktop level. You would have to go through the individual distro for that. And then we start the plethora of different information and different distros. It would be a big mess. That is why Lenovo will offer SuSE along with their computers, but won't support it. They tell you to turn to Novell for support.

For home users (read: average joe) support is everthing. If they can't get something to work, they want to be able to make a phone call and get it taken care of, not told to "google it" or that they have to call someone else.

[gtmtnbiker98]

Oracle will push Linux popularity down to the business user. People tend to employ similar applications at home as they do at work. You won't see widespread adoption by SOHO users until business' employ it at the desktop.

I'm a big Linux advocate with over sixteen Linux servers in production; however, I do not have a single Linux workstation deployed. Is this by choice, no. It boils down to software compatibility with our niche' software.